Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 49.9%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 25.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.72%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.