Major League Soccer
Sep 5, 2026 12.30am
Yankee Stadium

New York City FC vs Nashville SC - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

New York City FC

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
Aug 30, 2026 12.30am
Toronto 1 - 1 NY City
Goals scored
36
Top scorer
Nicolás Fernández Mercau

Nashville SC

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
Aug 30, 2026 1.30am
Nashville 4 - 0 Cincinnati
Goals scored
47
Top scorer
Sam Surridge

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a New York City FC win with a probability of 39.7%. A win for Nashville SC has a probability of 34.95% and a draw has a probability of 25.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (7.96%) and 2-0 (5.92%). The likeliest Nashville SC win is 1-2 (8.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.57%).

Result

New York City FC 39.7% (-0.06)
Draw 25.35% (+0.03)
Nashville SC 34.95% (+0.05)

Both Teams to Score: 

60.73% (+0.71)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.51% (+0.28)
Under 1.5 20.49% (-0.28)
Over 2.5 57.02% (+0.31)
Under 2.5 42.98% (-0.31)
Over 3.5 34.86% (+0.32)
Under 3.5 65.14% (-0.32)
Over 4.5 20.35% (+0.15)
Under 4.5 79.65% (-0.15)

First Half Winner

New York City FC 32.52% (-0.98)
Draw 40.81% (+0.39)
Nashville SC 26.67% (+0.62)

Team To Score First

New York City FC 49.46% (-0.47)
No Goal 5.48% (-0.12)
Nashville SC 45.06% (+0.60)

Corners

Over 8 56.39% (+0.07)
Equal 8 11.85% (+0.02)
Under 8 31.76% (-0.08)
Over 9 44.44% (+0.04)
Equal 9 11.94% (+0.02)
Under 9 43.61% (-0.07)
Over 10.5 33.42% (+0.02)
Under 10.5 66.58% (-0.02)

New York City FC Goals

Over 1.5 42.96% (+0.15)
Under 1.5 57.04% (-0.15)
Over 2.5 19.04% (+0.11)
Under 2.5 80.96% (-0.11)
Over 3.5 6.9% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 93.1% (-0.04)

Nashville SC Goals

Over 0.5 71% (+0.32)
Under 0.5 29% (-0.33)
Over 1.5 39.35% (+0.21)
Under 1.5 60.65% (-0.21)
Over 2.5 16.7% (+0.11)
Under 2.5 83.3% (-0.11)
Over 3.5 6.08% (+0.09)
Under 3.5 93.92% (-0.10)

Score analysis

New York City FC 39.69%
Draw 25.35%
Nashville SC 34.96%
New York City FC
2-1 @ 8.65% (+0.02)
1-0 @ 7.96% (-0.14)
2-0 @ 5.92% (-0.05)
3-1 @ 4.38% (+0.06)
3-2 @ 3.14% (+0.05)
3-0 @ 3.03% (-0.04)
Other @ 6.61% (+0.03)
Total : 39.69%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.57% (+0.05)
2-2 @ 6.42% (+0.09)
0-0 @ 5.48% (-0.12)
3-3 @ 1.59% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.29% (+0.01)
Total : 25.35%
Nashville SC
1-2 @ 8.09% (+0.01)
0-1 @ 7.05%
0-2 @ 5% (-0.05)
1-3 @ 3.71% (+0.03)
2-3 @ 2.93% (-0.03)
0-3 @ 2.39%
Other @ 5.79% (+0.09)
Total : 34.96%

Head to Head

Major League Soccer
May 24, 2026 1.30am
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT GEODIS Park
  • Jeison Palacios 16' goal
  • Maxwell Woledzi 49' goal
  • Sam Surridge 71' yellowcard
  • Sam Surridge 72' yellowcard
  • Charles-Emile Brunet 79' yellowcard
  • Alex Muyl 79' yellowcard
  • Alex Muyl 80' yellowcard
  • Josh Bauer 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Nicolás Fernández Mercau 23'
  • yellowcard Hannes Wolf 66'
  • yellowcard Jonathan Shore 66'
  • yellowcard Máximo Carrizo 78'
  • yellowcard Seymour Reid 85'
  • yellowcard Kevin Pierre Jr. 85'
Major League Soccer
Aug 17, 2025 10.00pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Major League Soccer
May 31, 2025 9.30pm
2
2
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Sam Surridge 27' goal
  • Sam Surridge 41' goal
  • Bryan Acosta 84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Aiden O'Neill 40'
  • goal Hannes Wolf 54'
  • yellowcard Strahinja Tanasijevic 74'
  • yellowcard Keaton Parks 83'
  • goal Hannes Wolf 87'
Major League Soccer
Oct 6, 2024 9.25pm
3
1
HT : 3 0
FT Red Bull Arena
  • Santiago Rodriguez 1' goal
  • Santiago Rodriguez 19' goal
  • Alonso Martinez 21' goal
  • yellowcard Walker Zimmerman 45'+2'
  • goal Duncan Williams 58'
  • yellowcard Patrick Yazbek 60'
Major League Soccer
Jun 23, 2024 1.30am
1
0
HT : 2 0
FT First Tennessee Park
  • Tyler Boyd 23' goal
  • Tyler Boyd 23' goal
  • yellowcard Santiago Rodriguez 26'
  • yellowcard Santiago Rodriguez 26'
  • yellowcard Tayvon Gray 86'
  • yellowcard Tayvon Gray 86'
Major League Soccer
Apr 16, 2023 12.30am
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT Yankee Stadium
  • Keaton Parks 11' goal
  • Maxime Chanot 25' goal
  • goal Duncan Williams 81'