Major League Soccer
Oct 28, 2026 11.30pm
Citi Field

New York City FC vs Atlanta United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

New York City FC

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
Oct 25, 2026 12.30am
Orlando City 2 - 2 NY City
Goals scored
45
Top scorer
Nicolás Fernández Mercau

Atlanta United

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
Oct 25, 2026 12.30am
Atlanta 2 - 3 Chicago Fire
Goals scored
39
Top scorer
Aleksey Miranchuk

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a New York City FC win with a probability of 40.57%. A win for Atlanta United has a probability of 34.24% and a draw has a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.01%) and 2-0 (5.83%). The likeliest Atlanta United win is 1-2 (7.99%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.43%).

Result

New York City FC 40.57% ▲ (+0.29)
Draw 25.2% ▼ (-0.11)
Atlanta United 34.24% ▼ (-0.23)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.32% ▲ (+0.17)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.32% ▲ (+0.12)
Under 1.5 20.68% ▼ (-0.13)
Over 2.5 57.07% ▲ (+0.30)
Under 2.5 42.93% ▼ (-0.28)
Over 3.5 34.3% ▲ (+0.27)
Under 3.5 65.7% ▼ (-0.24)
Over 4.5 19.98% ▲ (+0.22)
Under 4.5 80.02% ▼ (-0.22)

First Half Winner

New York City FC 35.72% ▲ (+0.38)
Draw 38.91% ▼ (-0.50)
Atlanta United 25.36% ▲ (+0.11)

Team To Score First

New York City FC 53.15% ▲ (+0.36)
No Goal 5.52% ▼ (-0.11)
Atlanta United 41.33% ▼ (-0.27)

Corners

Over 8 60.6% ▲ (+0.39)
Equal 8 11.27%
Under 8 28.13% ▼ (-0.39)
Over 9 48.86% ▲ (+0.36)
Equal 9 11.74% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 9 39.4% ▼ (-0.39)
Over 10.5 37.64% ▲ (+0.29)
Under 10.5 62.36% ▼ (-0.29)

New York City FC Goals

Over 1.5 43.69% ▲ (+0.34)
Under 1.5 56.31% ▼ (-0.34)
Over 2.5 19.91% ▲ (+0.38)
Under 2.5 80.09% ▼ (-0.37)
Over 3.5 7.18% ▲ (+0.17)
Under 3.5 92.82% ▼ (-0.18)

Atlanta United Goals

Over 0.5 70.43% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 0.5 29.57% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 1.5 38.46% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 61.54% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 16.2% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 83.8% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 3.5 5.32%
Under 3.5 94.68%

Score analysis

New York City FC 40.56%
Draw 25.2%
Atlanta United 34.24%
New York City FC
2-1 @ 8.9% ▲ (+0.02)
1-0 @ 8.01% ▼ (-0.03)
2-0 @ 5.83% ▼ (-0.04)
3-1 @ 4.49% ▲ (+0.07)
3-0 @ 3.34% ▲ (+0.05)
3-2 @ 3.12% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 6.87% ▲ (+0.17)
Total : 40.56%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.43% ▼ (-0.09)
2-2 @ 6.16% ▲ (+0.03)
0-0 @ 5.52% ▼ (-0.11)
3-3 @ 1.78% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 0.31% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 25.2%
Atlanta United
1-2 @ 7.99% ▼ (-0.01)
0-1 @ 7.15% ▼ (-0.06)
0-2 @ 4.99% ▼ (-0.06)
1-3 @ 3.67% ▼ (-0.04)
2-3 @ 2.89% ▼ (-0.05)
0-3 @ 2.54% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 5.01% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 34.24%

Head to Head

Major League Soccer
Sep 27, 2026 12.30am
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT Atlanta Stadium
  • Giuliano Galoppo 10' goal
  • Luke Brennan 43' yellowcard
  • Gerardo Martino 68' yellowcard
  • Ajani Fortune  74' goal
  • goal Matthew Edwards 5' (OG)
  • goal Andrés Perea 56'
  • yellowcard Raul Gustavo  90'+5'
Major League Soccer
Jun 13, 2025 12.30am
4
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Maximiliano Moralez 44' goal
  • Monsef Bakrar 55' goal
  • Hannes Wolf 57' goal
  • Hannes Wolf 59' goal
Major League Soccer
Mar 29, 2025 11.30pm
4
3
HT : 1 1
FT Mercedes-Benz Stadium
  • Aleksei Miranchuk 42' goal
  • Keaton Parks 62' goal
  • Miguel Almiron 75' goal
  • Emmanuel Latte Lath 84' goal
  • Brad Guzan 90'+4' yellowcard
  • goal Hannes Wolf 15'
  • goal Alonso Martinez 48'
  • goal Hannes Wolf 51'
Major League Soccer
Jul 18, 2024 12.30am
2
2
HT : 4 0
FT Mercedes-Benz Stadium
  • Daniel Rios 1' goal
  • Daniel Rios 1' goal
  • Saba Lobzhanidze 38' goal
  • Saba Lobzhanidze 38' goal
  • Tristan Muyumba 61' yellowcard
  • Tristan Muyumba 61' yellowcard
  • Brooks Lennon 86' yellowcard
  • Brooks Lennon 86' yellowcard
  • Luke Brennan 90'+5' yellowcard
  • Luke Brennan 90'+5' yellowcard
  • goal Monsef Bakrar 65'
  • goal Monsef Bakrar 65'
  • yellowcard Justin Haak 77'
  • yellowcard Justin Haak 77'
  • goal Talles Magno 82'
  • goal Talles Magno 82'
Major League Soccer
Apr 7, 2024 12.30am
1
1
HT : 2 0
FT Yankee Stadium
  • James Sands 15' yellowcard
  • James Sands 15' yellowcard
  • Santiago Rodriguez 43' goal
  • Santiago Rodriguez 43' goal
  • Tayvon Gray 50' yellowcard
  • Tayvon Gray 50' yellowcard
  • Keaton Parks 74' yellowcard
  • Keaton Parks 74' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Derrick Williams 61'
  • yellowcard Derrick Williams 61'
  • goal Jamal Thiare 65'
  • goal Jamal Thiare 65'
Major League Soccer
Jun 22, 2023 12.30am
2
2
HT : 2 2
FT Mercedes-Benz Stadium
  • Tyler Wolff 11' goal
  • Tyler Wolff 11' goal
  • Elio Nicolas Firmino 90'+5' goal
  • Nick Firmino 90'+5' goal
  • goal Gabriel Pereira 1'
  • goal Gabriel Pereira 1'
  • goal Gabriel Pereira 56'
  • goal Gabriel Pereira 56'