Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 58.3%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Minnesota United had a probability of 19.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.41%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.74%), while for a Minnesota United win it was 0-1 (5.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.