Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 51.32%. A win for Colorado Rapids had a probability of 26.44% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.51%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Colorado Rapids win was 1-2 (6.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.