Middlesbrough will try to keep their Championship playoff hopes alive when they host Preston North End on Tuesday evening.
Boro are in ninth and eight points behind the top six, while Preston's dreams of getting into the end-of-season lottery were ended long ago and they sit 15th.
Match preview
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Goals from Grant Hall, Paddy McNair and Nathaniel Mendez-Laing gave Middlesbrough a 3-0 home victory over Stoke City on Saturday, with Neil Warnock admitting that they would have been "completely out" of the playoff picture if they had not won the game.
An inconsistent run of form has seen Boro fall behind in the race for the top six; since picking up an impressive 2-0 victory over Reading three weeks ago, Boro have won just two of their last five while rivals Cardiff City and Barnsley have gone on winning runs.
Their next four games after Tuesday will play a big part in deciding their fate this season as they are all against top-10 sides, including sixth-placed Barnsley and seventh-placed Bournemouth.
Warnock's side have won half of their 18 home games this season but have not won back-to-back matches at the Riverside since mid-December.
Boro have not kept a clean sheet since their 0-0 draw with Norwich City at the end of January, meanwhile, but equally they have scored in all nine games since then too.
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Boro's 3-0 loss to Preston earlier in the season is their joint biggest margin of defeat in 2020-21 and also the Lilywhites' joint biggest margin of victory; it was only Preston's second win over the Teeside outfit in their last 17 meetings.
Alex Neil's side could certainly do with a similar result on Tuesday as they have just two victories in their last 11 matches and lost 1-0 to bottom of the table Wycombe Wanderers on Saturday while only having one shot on target.
Neil, who made three changes at half time at Adams Park to try to change the tide, admitted that he was "alarmed" about the run of form that his side are on.
Preston are at risk of letting their season peter out with 10 games left to play as they are 17 points behind the playoffs but 12 points clear of safety.
Only three sides in the Championship have conceded more goals than the Lilywhites this season, while they have lost three successive away games; the last time they lost four in a row on the road was at the end of the 2018-19 campaign.
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Team News
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It was Warnock's switch to a 4-3-3 system midway through Middlesbrough's game against Stoke – with Paddy McNair moving into midfield – that proved decisive in getting the victory so that may be how Boro start on Tuesday.
Darnell Fisher has overcome an Achilles problem and could come in at right-back against his former club, while Mendez-Laing is pushing for a start on the wing after having a positive impact as a substitute in recent games.
The question then lies over who Boro's number nine will be – Duncan Watmore, Chuba Akpom or Britt Assombalonga.
Neil is expected to ring the changes after Preston's defeat to Wycombe, with loanees Jayson Molumby and Anthony Gordon among those in contention to come into the side.
Liam Lindsay returned to the matchday squad on Saturday after missing the previous four games through injury so could start at the Riverside.
Middlesbrough possible starting lineup:
Bettinelli; Fisher, Fry, Hall, Bola; McNair, Morsy, Howson; Kebano, Watmore, Bolasie
Preston North End possible starting lineup:
Iversen; Van Den Berg, Lindsay, Storey, Hughes; Molumby, Whiteman, Browne; Barkhuizen, Evans, Gordon
We say: Middlesbrough 2-0 Preston North End
The two teams will be at complete opposite ends of the confidence scale after Saturday's results, and with such a quick turnaround, it would not be a surprise to see Middlesbrough continue to kick on and Preston go into their shell.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 44.85%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Preston North End had a probability of 27.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.92%) and 2-1 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.97%), while for a Preston North End win it was 0-1 (9.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
