Coupe de France
Marseille
Mar 4, 2026 8.00pm
2
2
ET Stade Vélodrome
Toulouse
  • Mason Greenwood 2' yellowcard
  • Ethan Nwaneri 46' yellowcard
  • Igor Paixão 56' goal
  • Bilal Nadir 58' yellowcard
  • Hamed Junior Traoré 90' yellowcard
  • goal Yann Gboho 13'
  • goal Charlie Cresswell 60'
  • yellowcard Warren Kamanzi 65'
  • yellowcard Jacen Russell-Rowe 83'

Marseille vs Toulouse - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Toulouse

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 51.06%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 25.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 0-1 (6.46%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.

Result

Marseille 51.06% ▲ (+0.11)
Draw 23.87% ▼ (-0.24)
Toulouse 25.03% ▲ (+0.09)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.05% ▼ (-0.08)

Goals

Over 1.5 77.33% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 1.5 22.67% ▼ (-0.07)
Over 2.5 54.44% ▲ (+0.26)
Under 2.5 45.56% ▼ (-0.26)
Over 3.5 31.96% ▲ (+0.70)
Under 3.5 68.04% ▼ (-0.69)
Over 4.5 19.02% ▲ (+0.51)
Under 4.5 80.98% ▼ (-0.51)

First Half Winner

Marseille 37.37% ▼ (-0.78)
Draw 40.34% ▼ (-0.20)
Toulouse 22.29% ▲ (+0.97)

Team To Score First

Marseille 56.63% ▼ (-1.08)
No Goal 6.05% ▼ (-0.03)
Toulouse 37.32% ▲ (+1.10)

Corners

Over 8 49.87% ▲ (+1.61)
Equal 8 12.12% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 8 38.01% ▼ (-1.57)
Over 9 38.26% ▲ (+1.52)
Equal 9 11.61% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 9 50.13% ▼ (-1.61)
Over 10.5 28.05% ▲ (+1.33)
Under 10.5 71.95% ▼ (-1.32)

Marseille Goals

Over 1.5 49.71% ▲ (+0.40)
Under 1.5 50.29% ▼ (-0.40)
Over 2.5 24.26% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 2.5 75.74% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 3.5 9.92% ▲ (+0.27)
Under 3.5 90.08% ▼ (-0.27)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5 60.97% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 0.5 39.03% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 1.5 28.47% ▲ (+0.18)
Under 1.5 71.53% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 2.5 10.06% ▲ (+0.28)
Under 2.5 89.94% ▼ (-0.27)
Over 3.5 3.04% ▲ (+0.30)
Under 3.5 96.96% ▼ (-0.31)

Score analysis

Marseille 51.06%
Draw 23.86%
Toulouse 25.03%
Marseille
1-0 @ 10.11% ▼ (-0.03)
2-1 @ 9.82% ▲ (+0.15)
2-0 @ 8.23% ▲ (+0.16)
3-1 @ 5.2% ▲ (+0.08)
3-0 @ 4.86% ▼ (-0.30)
3-2 @ 3.11% ▼ (-0.17)
Other @ 9.73% ▲ (+0.24)
Total : 51.06%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.02% ▼ (-0.42)
0-0 @ 6.05% ▼ (-0.03)
2-2 @ 5.43% ▲ (+0.07)
3-3 @ 1.17% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 0.19% ▲ (+0.05)
Total : 23.86%
Toulouse
0-1 @ 6.46% ▼ (-0.09)
1-2 @ 6.23% ▼ (-0.06)
0-2 @ 3.64% ▲ (+0.08)
1-3 @ 2.31% ▲ (+0.05)
2-3 @ 1.97% ▲ (+0.09)
0-3 @ 1.57% ▼ (-0.22)
Other @ 2.85% ▲ (+0.27)
Total : 25.03%

Head to Head

Ligue 1
Marseille
Nov 29, 2025 8.05pm
2
2
HT : 0 1
FT
Toulouse
  • Angel Gomes 42' yellowcard
  • Igor Paixao 66' goal
  • Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 74' goal
  • Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 75' yellowcard
  • goal Emersonn Correia da Silva 14'
  • yellowcard Mark McKenzie 81'
  • goal Santiago Hidalgo 90'+2'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 28
Marseille
Apr 6, 2025 7.45pm
3
2
HT : 1 1
FT Stade Velodrome
Toulouse
  • Gabriel Suazo 21' goal
  • Mason Greenwood 24' yellowcard
  • Mason Greenwood 57' goal
  • Adrien Rabiot 64' goal
  • Bilal Nadir 90'+5' yellowcard
  • goal Frank Magri 28'
  • yellowcard Shavy Babicka 32'
  • yellowcard Frank Magri 56'
  • yellowcard Cristian Casseres Jr 68'
  • goal Vincent Sierro 76'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 3
Toulouse
Aug 31, 2024 8.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 2
FT Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
Marseille
  • Frank Magri 27' redcard
  • Cristian Casseres Jr 44' yellowcard
  • Aron Donnum 49' yellowcard
  • Shavy Babicka 73' yellowcard
  • Vincent Sierro 82' yellowcard
  • Carles Martinez 86' yellowcard
  • Shavy Babicka 90' goal
  • yellowcard Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 10'
  • goal Mason Greenwood 16'
  • goal Mason Greenwood 17'
  • goal Charlie Cresswell 52' (OG)
  • yellowcard Lilian Brassier 73'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 30
Toulouse
Apr 21, 2024 6.15pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
Marseille
  • Moussa Diarra 39' yellowcard
  • Rasmus Nicolaisen 45'+2' goal
  • Yann Gboho 82' goal
  • yellowcard Michael Murillo 33'
  • goal Jean Onana 38'
  • yellowcard Azzedine Ounahi 47'
  • goal Faris Moumbagna 90'+6'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 5
Marseille
Sep 17, 2023 4.05pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stade Velodrome
Toulouse
  • Joaquin Correa 64' yellowcard
  • Amine Harit 89' yellowcard
  • Marcelino 80'+80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Niklas Schmidt 4'
  • yellowcard Mikkel Desler 45'
  • yellowcard Frank Magri 77'
  • yellowcard Guillaume Restes 79'
  • yellowcard Mamady Bangre 90'+5'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 24
Toulouse
Feb 19, 2023 7.45pm
2
3
HT : 1 0
FT
Marseille
  • Thijs Dallinga 3' goal
  • Ado Onaiwu 87' goal
  • goal Chancel Mbemba 52'
  • goal Cengiz Under 59'
  • goal Nuno Tavares 78'

Form Data

Marseille 3 - 2 Lyon
Brest 2 - 0 Marseille
Marseille 2 - 2 Strasbourg
PSG 5 - 0 Marseille
Marseille 3 - 0 Rennes
Paris FC 2 - 2 Marseille
Rennes 1 - 0 Toulouse
Toulouse 1 - 1 Paris FC
Le Havre 2 - 1 Toulouse
Angers 1 - 0 Toulouse
Toulouse 1 - 0 Amiens
Toulouse 0 - 0 Auxerre