Man City vs. Arsenal: One damning projection highlights why Pep Guardiola’s side cannot lose Premier League title showdown

Manchester City lock horns with Premier League leaders Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday in an eagerly-anticipated contest that is poised to have significant ramifications for the destination of this season’s title.

Mikel Arteta’s men have been leading the way at the summit for more than 200 days, but last weekend's disappointing 2-1 home defeat to Bournemouth has invited fresh doubts over whether they can hold off a Citizens outfit building form at a crucial period.

After beating Arsenal 2-0 in the EFL Cup final and thrashing Liverpool 4-0 in the FA Cup quarter-finals, Man City secured another statement victory at Stamford Bridge last weekend, beating Chelsea 3-0 to capitalise on the Gunners’ slip-up to Bournemouth.

Arsenal’s lead at the top has been trimmed to six points and Man City - who also have a game in hand - can cut the gap to just three points with a win in Sunday’s title showdown at the Etihad.

Pep Guardiola’s side have found it difficult to prevail in recent top-flight battles with Arsenal, though, failing to win any of their last five head-to-heads in the Premier League (D2 L3).

Man City let a one-goal lead slip to draw 1-1 with the Gunners in the reverse fixture at the Emirates Stadium back in September, with Gabriel Martinelli scoring a dramatic 93rd-minute equaliser.

Man City given 2% chance of winning PL title if they lose to Arsenal

Defeat for Man City on Sunday would leave them nine points behind Arsenal with only six games left to play. In this scenario, the Gunners would need just 10 points from their final five matches to clinch their first Premier League trophy in over two decades.

According to Opta’s supercomputer, victory for Arteta’s side would see their projected chances of winning the title rise to 98%, leaving Guardiola’s men with just a 2% chance of pulling off a sensational comeback.

At a press conference on Friday, Guardiola admitted that defeat would end his team’s title hopes, telling reporters: “Obviously, if we lose it’s over.

“But there is still games to play. The reality is there are seven games left for us in the Premier League and that is the decisive moment.

“Maybe [Arsenal] are not at their best, but they are the only English team in the Champions League, and they have been the best so far. We want to challenge them.

“I said today to the players, it is just a football game, and we have to approach it like a football game. If you get distracted by emotions, that is how you lose focus.

“The target is to perform well and that is exactly what you have got to do, and all the aspects required to challenge a team like Arsenal. The confidence is good, we are ready.”

Arsenal remain PL title favourites, even if they lose to Man City

Man City should back themselves to avoid defeat at the Etihad, though, given they are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League home meetings with Arsenal (W7 D3) and have not lot any of their last 14 top-flight home matches since a 2-0 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur back in August.

Should the Citizens play out a draw with Arsenal this weekend, the gap at the summit would remain at six points, with Guardiola’s side still possessing a crucial game in hand (against Crystal Palace which is yet to be rescheduled).

Victory against Palace would pull the two sides level at the top, and if they cannot be separated by the final day, we could witness the first title decided by goal difference since City famously pipped rivals Man United in the 2011-12 season under Roberto Mancini.

Opta’s supercomputer projects that a draw would enhance Arsenal’s probability of winning the Premier League title from 85.7% to 89%, while Man City are given an 11% chance of top-flight glory should the spoils be shared.

Victory for Man City on Sunday, meanwhile, would set up an exciting title run-in, and their projected title hopes would increase to 31% according to Opta’s supercomputer.

Although Arsenal would remain the favourites to secure top spot, defeat at the Etihad would reduce their projected title chances from 85.7% to 69%, leave Arteta and co facing a daunting psychological hurdle heading down the home stretch.