In the first game of this round of World Cup Qualifying fixtures, Malta will welcome Cyprus to Ta' Qali as both nations look to climb the group.
After three of 10 qualifying games, the hosts have collected just one point, while their visitors will look to build on a commendable tally of four points.
Match preview
© Reuters
In the opening round of World Cup Qualifying fixtures in March, Malta started with a tough home game against Russia, and they were handed a 3-1 defeat.
Joseph Mbong gave them a chance when he pulled a goal back in the 56th minute, after Artem Dzyuba and Mario Fernandes had put the visitors 2-0 up, but Aleksandr Sobolev restored Russia's two-goal lead in the dying minutes to put the game out of sight.
Devis Mangia's men bounced back in impressive fashion, as they took an early two-goal lead away against Slovakia through Luke Gambin and Alexander Satariano, only for David Strelec and Milan Skriniar to draw the hosts level and force Malta to settle for a commendable point.
They would not be able to build on that though, as the most recent World Cup Qualifying outing saw Croatia pick up a dominant 3-0 win on home turf.
With the latest round of international friendlies also producing two defeats, Malta have now failed to win any of their last six games in all competitions, and they will be keen to break that run with what would be an important victory to take their tally to four points.
© Reuters
Cyprus come into the game in high spirits, having had a relatively strong start to the World Cup Qualifiers, starting with a goalless draw against Slovakia.
Nikos Kostenoglou's men then gave a good account of themselves in a 1-0 defeat to 2018 World Cup finalists Croatia, before they put their first three-point haul on the board with a 1-0 win over Slovenia.
Ioannis Pittas put Cyprus ahead on the stroke of half time, and they stood strong after the break to hold on for a victory, despite sustained periods of pressure from the visitors.
While they will be pleased with a tally of four points from three games, Kostenoglou's side suffered back-to-back defeats in the most recent round of fixtures, as they were beaten 1-0 by Hungary and 4-0 by Ukraine in friendlies in June, as both nations geared up for the Euro 2020 campaign that Cyprus were not a part of.
They will hope to bounce back and continue their impressive campaign in the qualifying group, with the chance to break into the top two with a victory.
- L
- D
- L
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- W
- L
- D
- L
- W
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Malta are expected to stick with their preferred system of three centre-backs, with Kurt Shaw, Enrico Pepe and Steve Borg set to line up across the back line.
Further forward, Paul Mbong will hope for a starting spot in the front line, while 19-year-old Alexander Satariano got on the scoresheet in the 2-2 draw with Slovakia and provides plenty of excitement at the top of the pitch.
Captain Andrei Agius has the most experience in the squad with 100 caps under his belt, but the 35-year-old's starting opportunities have been limited in recent years.
Winger Ioannis Pittas will be a key man going forward for Cyprus, given their struggles for a central striker and his winning goal in the 1-0 victory over Slovenia.
Pieros Sotiriou has often been chosen to lead the line, but his disappointing form in front of goal has led to rotation with Marios Elia.
At the other end of the pitch, Kostenoglou should again deploy the formidable back three of Ioannis Kousoulos, Constantinos Soteriou and Konstantinos Laifis.
Malta possible starting lineup:
Bonello; Shaw, Pepe, Borg; Mbong, Guillaumier, Teuma, Camenzuli; Gambin, Satariano, Pisani
Cyprus possible starting lineup:
Michael; Antoniou, Kousoulos, Soteriou, Laifis, Ioannou; Pittas, Artymatas, Kastanos, Papoulis; Sotiriou
We say: Malta 0-1 Cyprus
While we put the sides on a fairly level playing field, Cyprus' stronger start to the World Cup Qualifying campaign leads us to believe that the visitors can narrowly get over the line on Thursday.
Although they have struggled to regularly find goals, Kostenoglou's men have shown themselves to be solid defensively, and they will look to see out a clean sheet to ensure one goal at the other end will make the difference.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malta win with a probability of 40.17%. A win for Cyprus had a probability of 36.86% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malta win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.18%) and 2-0 (5.24%). The likeliest Cyprus win was 1-2 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malta would win this match.
