Preview: Mali vs Rwanda - prediction, team news, lineups

Mali host Rwanda at the Stade du 26 Mars in Bamako on Friday, November 13, in the third round of Group K in the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers, with kick-off at 19:00 GMT.

Both sides have won their opening two games and sit on six points with a goal difference of +3, Rwanda ahead on goals scored (five to four), and only the top two in a group with no host nation reach the finals in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.

Match preview

Anthony Da Silva's first competitive game in charge of Les Aigles ended in a 3-1 home win over Cape Verde, a side who played at this summer's World Cup, on September 25.

Ange Martial Tia scored after five minutes, Sidny Cabral equalised in the 10th minute, and Nene Dorgeles then scored in the 39th and 51st minutes.

Tia also scored the only goal in Paynesville on September 29, in the 79th minute, after which Da Silva said Liberia had defended well on a synthetic pitch.

A 1-1 friendly draw with Morocco in Tangier on October 4, in which Gaoussou Diarra cancelled out Abdessamad Ezzalzouli's 35th-minute penalty in the 77th minute, leaves Mali unbeaten in their last three games.

Mali have never lost to Rwanda, winning three and drawing one of four World Cup qualifiers, with a 7-2 aggregate goal record.

The latest two meetings were a 1-0 home win on September 1, 2021 and a 3-0 win in Kigali on November 11, 2021, yet Da Silva has still described the chances of the two teams as equal.

The Amavubi began with a 3-1 win over Liberia in Kigali on September 25, with Abeddy Biramahire scoring in the second minute, Leroy Mickels in the 33rd and Joy-Lance Mickels from the penalty spot in the 44th.

In Praia on September 29 they trailed to Gilson Benchimol's 40th-minute goal, before Claude Niyomugabo equalised in first-half stoppage time with a long-range strike from a corner.

Elie Tatou Iradukunda scored the winner in the 52nd minute after a mistake by Cape Verde goalkeeper Vozinha, and Rwanda were outshot 19-6 over the 90 minutes.

Stephen Constantine, in his second spell as Rwanda coach, declared after that win that "the revolution has begun", and his side also drew 0-0 with Kenya on October 5 in an international friendly match in Kigali.

Rwanda are chasing a first AFCON finals appearance since 2004, and Constantine has said he will take one game at a time while rating Group K as containing two of the better teams in Africa.

They have never beaten Mali, scoring only two goals in four meetings, and have conceded in both qualifiers so far.

Mali Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying form:

Mali form (all competitions):

Rwanda Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying form:

Rwanda form (all competitions):

Team News

Tia, who has scored twice in two caps for Mali, is out with an ankle injury, while Adama Camara (hamstring) and Lassana Coulibaly (biceps femoris) are also unavailable.

West Ham midfielder Mohamadou Kante receives his first call-up after choosing Mali over France and Senegal, and Swansea winger Moussa Yeo, 22, is also new after scoring three times in his last five club games.

Gaoussou Diakite of Salzburg and Fode Doucoure of Nantes return in a 24-man squad that does not include Yves Bissouma, who joined Ajax in late September, with no reason given for his absence.

For the visitors, Constantine trimmed his squad on Monday, November 9, dropping Elie Ganijuru, Kevin Muhire, Taiba Mbonyumwami and goalkeeper Yves Mugisha, while Fidele Uwiyaremye had already been sent home on the first day of camp for disciplinary reasons.

Defender Thierry Manzi and midfielder Jean Bosco Ruboneka are back after missing the September qualifiers, and Bonheur Mugisha, Gilbert Mugisha and Leroy-Jacques Mickels joined the camp on Monday.

Mali possible starting lineup:

Diarra; Traore, O Camara, Guindo, Gassama; Dieng, Sangare, K. Doumbia; Dorgeles, M. Doumbia, Sinayoko

Rwanda possible starting lineup:

Ntwari; Niyomugabo, Kavita, Mutsinzi, Byiringiro; Bizimana, B. Mugisha; L. Mickels, J. Mickels, G. Mugisha; Biramahire

We say: Mali 1-0 Rwanda

Mali have not lost to Rwanda in four attempts, and Rwanda have not scored against them in either of the last two meetings.

Rwanda's winner in Praia came from a goalkeeping error and they were outshot 19-6 there, while Mali have conceded only Cabral's goal in two games, so chances should be scarce for the Amavubi in Bamako.

Tia's absence removes the scorer of two of Mali's four goals, which is why a narrow margin looks more likely than a repeat of the 3-0 in Kigali in 2021.

Rwanda have scored more than Mali, and with the return leg in Kigali on November 17 a draw in Bamako would suit them.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.