Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a North Macedonia win with a probability of 68.36%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Latvia had a probability of 11.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.43%) and 3-0 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.39%), while for a Latvia win it was 0-1 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for North Macedonia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for North Macedonia.