Swansea City will attempt to break back into the Championship top two when they travel to Luton Town on Saturday afternoon.
The Swans are currently in third, only behind second-placed Watford on goal difference and with a game in hand over the Hornets.
Match preview
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Swansea missed the chance to move into those automatic promotion spots as they drew 1-1 against Blackburn Rovers on Tuesday.
The Welsh side trailed against Rovers but were awarded a penalty for the fourth successive game, which Andre Ayew dispatched, just as he had done on the three previous occasions.
Steve Cooper was disappointed with the performance but credited his side for picking up points despite not playing well, and the Swans have now lost just two of their last 15 league matches.
No side has lost fewer away games in the Championship than Swansea this season (four), while only league leaders Norwich City have won more times on the road.
While their defence is the second best in the division behind Watford, and Freddie Woodman has more clean sheets than any other second tier goalkeeper (17), the Swans have conceded in each of their last four matches – their longest run without a clean sheet since October.
The promotion hopefuls kept out Luton in the reverse fixture at the Liberty Stadium in December as goals from Connor Roberts and Ayew secured a 2-0 win – their fifth victory in their last six meetings with the Hatters.
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Nathan Jones felt that his side were the better team in that fixture, but he had no complaints as Luton were beaten 3-0 by a clinical Norwich outfit last weekend.
The result followed two successive wins for the Hatters, which brought some stability to Kenilworth Road after an inconsistent few months.
Luton are currently 16th in the table – 13 points behind the playoffs and 12 ahead of the relegation zone, making them the very definition of a mid-table team.
The home side arguably could have been higher had it not been for a poor start to 2021; they won just two of their first nine games of the calendar year, while no Championship club has scored fewer goals than Luton (eight) since January 1.
Luton's 3-2 victory over Sheffield Wednesday in their last fixture at Kenilworth Road was their first home league win of the year, meanwhile, and only their fourth in 14 matches.
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Team News
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The likes of Jordan Clark, Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu and Elijah Adebayo are all likely to return to the Luton starting lineup after being named on the bench against Norwich, with Jones admitting that he rested a number of players at Carrow Road with the scheduled trip to Rotherham United on Tuesday in mind before it was postponed.
Glen Rea could also play a part after a sore Achilles ruled him out of last weekend's match, but centre-back pair Sonny Bradley and Tom Lockyer remain sidelined.
As for Swansea, Marc Guehi is "touch and go" for the trip to Bedfordshire after the centre-back was forced off at halftime against Blackburn with a groin problem.
Ryan Bennett is now fit enough to start after recovering from a calf injury, but it seems more likely that Joel Latibeaudiere will be given the nod in the back three.
Cooper has also admitted that "we have a few niggles", with Paul Arriola remaining out with a thigh injury, but he could be back for Tuesday's trip to Bournemouth.
Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Sluga; Clark, Pearson, Naismith, Potts; Tunnicliffe, Rea, Dewsbury-Hall; Mpanzu; Collins, Adebayo
Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Woodman; Naughton, Cabango, Latibeaudiere; Roberts, Fulton, Grimes, Bidwell; Hourihane; Lowe, Ayew
We say: Luton Town 0-2 Swansea City
Luton appear to have become more stable since their wobble at the start of 2021 but like last weekend, this game may be another instance of the Hatters simply being outclassed by superior opposition. Swansea are not playing at their best, but they are grinding out results – a vital trait to have if they are to win promotion.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 49.13%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 24.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.3%) and 1-2 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.27%), while for a Luton Town win it was 1-0 (8.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Swansea City in this match.
