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Champions League

Lincoln Red Imps
Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 23, 2024 at 5pm UK
Victoria Stadium, Wincham
Qarabag

Lincoln
0 - 2
Qarabag


Britto (72'), Torilla (74')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Juninho (45+2'), Bayramov (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Lincoln Red Imps and Qarabag FK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lincoln Red Imps

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Last Game: Lincoln 0-1 Hamrun Spartans (5-4 pen.)
Tuesday, July 16 at 5pm in Champions League
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Qarabag FK

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Last Game: Qarabag 1-0 Slaven Koprivnica
Tuesday, July 16 at 12pm in Club Friendlies 3
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 50.47%. A win for Lincoln Red Imps had a probability of 26.52% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.42%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Lincoln Red Imps win was 2-1 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Qarabag FK would win this match.

Result
Lincoln Red ImpsDrawQarabag FK
26.52% (-3.227 -3.23)23.01% (-0.299 -0.3)50.47% (3.528 3.53)
Both teams to score 59.86% (-1.519 -1.52)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.21% (-0.889 -0.89)40.79% (0.892 0.89)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.82% (-0.915 -0.91)63.18% (0.919 0.92)
Lincoln Red Imps Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.53% (-2.679 -2.68)28.47% (2.683 2.68)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.76% (-3.498 -3.5)64.24% (3.504 3.5)
Qarabag FK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.68% (0.977 0.98)16.32% (-0.973 -0.97)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.1% (1.739 1.74)45.9% (-1.735 -1.74)
Score Analysis
    Lincoln Red Imps 26.52%
    Qarabag FK 50.47%
    Draw 23.01%
Lincoln Red ImpsDrawQarabag FK
2-1 @ 6.65% (-0.54 -0.54)
1-0 @ 5.84% (-0.207 -0.21)
2-0 @ 3.67% (-0.429 -0.43)
3-1 @ 2.78% (-0.463 -0.46)
3-2 @ 2.52% (-0.326 -0.33)
3-0 @ 1.54% (-0.315 -0.32)
Other @ 3.53%
Total : 26.52%
1-1 @ 10.58% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 6.02% (-0.282 -0.28)
0-0 @ 4.65% (0.187 0.19)
3-3 @ 1.52% (-0.142 -0.14)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 23.01%
1-2 @ 9.59% (0.285 0.29)
0-1 @ 8.42% (0.597 0.6)
0-2 @ 7.64% (0.769 0.77)
1-3 @ 5.8% (0.352 0.35)
0-3 @ 4.61% (0.597 0.6)
2-3 @ 3.64% (-0.048 -0.05)
1-4 @ 2.63% (0.238 0.24)
0-4 @ 2.09% (0.328 0.33)
2-4 @ 1.65% (0.031 0.03)
1-5 @ 0.95% (0.115 0.12)
Other @ 3.45%
Total : 50.47%

How you voted: Lincoln vs Qarabag

Lincoln Red Imps
10.0%
Draw
10.0%
Qarabag FK
80.0%
60
Head to Head
Jul 19, 2023 5pm
First Qualifying Round 2nd Leg
Qarabag
4-0
Lincoln
Zoubir (7'), Mustafazada (45+1'), Xhixha (49'), Jankovic (62')

Sergeant (44'), Gomez (64')
> Preview
Jul 11, 2023 4.30pm
First Qualifying Round 1st Leg
Lincoln
1-2
Qarabag
Gomez (25')
Yahaya (45+4'), Casciaro (72'), Lopes (78')
Xhixha (58'), Benzia (90+4')
> Preview
rhs 2.0


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