Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln Red Imps win with a probability of 38.62%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 37.46% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln Red Imps win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.11%) and 0-2 (5.53%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Qarabag FK would win this match.