Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 40.92%. A win for Lincoln Red Imps had a probability of 34.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.7%) and 0-2 (6.08%). The likeliest Lincoln Red Imps win was 2-1 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Qarabag FK in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Qarabag FK.