Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shkupi win with a probability of 52.23%. A win for Lincoln Red Imps had a probability of 24.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shkupi win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.73%) and 0-2 (8.75%). The likeliest Lincoln Red Imps win was 1-0 (6.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.