Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 41.04%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 33.46% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (6.82%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-0 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.