Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rennes win with a probability of 48.85%. A win for Metz had a probability of 26.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rennes win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest Metz win was 0-1 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rennes would win this match.