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Ligue 2 | Gameweek 38
Jun 2, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Saint-Symphorien

Metz
3 - 2
Bastia

Sabaly (31'), Maziz (55', 75')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Bohnert (68'), Schur (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Ligue 2 clash between Metz and Bastia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Metz

All competitions
Last Game: Sochaux 0-1 Metz
Friday, May 26 at 7.45pm in Ligue 2

Bastia

All competitions
Last Game: Bastia 1-1 Le Havre
Friday, May 26 at 7.45pm in Ligue 2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 56.21%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Bastia had a probability of 17.92%.

The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.15%) and 2-1 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Bastia win it was 0-1 (7.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Metz would win this match.

Result
MetzDrawBastia
56.21% (3.918 3.92)25.86% (-1.207 -1.21)17.92% (-2.714 -2.71)
Both teams to score 40.62% (-0.818 -0.82)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
39.24% (1.06 1.06)60.76% (-1.061 -1.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.18% (0.789 0.79)80.81% (-0.791 -0.79)
Metz Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.21% (2.144 2.14)21.79% (-2.145 -2.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.01% (3.167 3.17)54.98% (-3.169 -3.17)
Bastia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
51.93% (-2.539 -2.54)48.07% (2.539 2.54)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.72% (-1.927 -1.93)83.28% (1.926 1.93)
Score Analysis
    Metz 56.2%
    Bastia 17.92%
    Draw 25.86%
MetzDrawBastia
1-0 @ 15.95% (0.37 0.37)
2-0 @ 12.15% (1.01 1.01)
2-1 @ 8.91% (0.143 0.14)
3-0 @ 6.18% (0.867 0.87)
3-1 @ 4.53% (0.347 0.35)
4-0 @ 2.35% (0.455 0.46)
4-1 @ 1.72% (0.23 0.23)
3-2 @ 1.66% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 56.2%
1-1 @ 11.69% (-0.56 -0.56)
0-0 @ 10.47% (-0.42 -0.42)
2-2 @ 3.26% (-0.185 -0.19)
Other @ 0.43%
Total : 25.86%
0-1 @ 7.67% (-0.902 -0.9)
1-2 @ 4.28% (-0.541 -0.54)
0-2 @ 2.81% (-0.562 -0.56)
1-3 @ 1.05% (-0.219 -0.22)
Other @ 2.11%
Total : 17.92%

How you voted: Metz vs Bastia

Metz
55.6%
Draw
27.8%
Bastia
16.7%
18
Head to Head
Sep 17, 2022 6pm
gameweek 9
Bastia
1-0
Metz
Salles-Lamonge (10')
Mar 17, 2017 6pm
Metz
1-0
Bastia
Cioni (46' og.)
Balliu (50'), Nguette (69')

Cioni (38'), Ngando (78')
Dec 10, 2016 7pm
Bastia
2-0
Metz
Djiku (23'), Saint-Maximin (75')
Coulibaly (22'), Danic (83')

Cohade (45'), Niguette (52')
Feb 7, 2015 7pm
Bastia
2-0
Metz
Kamano (65'), Boudebouz (79' pen.)
Modesto (45')

Ndaw (3'), Milan (38'), Luis Palomino (45'), Marchal (79')
Milan (50')
> Match Report
Sep 20, 2014 7pm
Metz
3-1
Bastia
Krivets (14'), Milan (64'), Falcon (74')
Metanire (7')
Ayite (42')
Modesto (81')
> Match Report