Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Clermont win with a probability of 40.46%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 33.42% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Clermont win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Monaco win was 0-1 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.