Liga MX Gameweek 11
Oct 10, 2026 4.00am
3
2
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León
  • Juan Brunetta 6' goal
  • Guillermo Martínez 37' goal
  • Juan Brunetta 60' goal
  • Vladimir Loroña 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Alexis Vega 33'
  • goal Paulinho 42'
  • yellowcard Brian García 43'
  • redcard Antonio Mohamed 45'+4'
  • goal Federico Viñas 54'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Franco Romero 90'+3'

Tigres vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Tigres

All competitions
Last game
Sep 27, 2026 4.10am
Tigres 1 - 0 Puebla
Goals scored
13
Top scorer
Juan Brunetta

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Sep 26, 2026 11.50pm
Cruz Azul 3 - 3 Toluca
Goals scored
25
Top scorer
Federico Viñas

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigres win with a probability of 44.05%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 28.08% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tigres win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (8.47%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.

Result

Tigres 44.05% ▼ (-0.08)
Draw 27.9% ▲ (+0.04)
Toluca 28.08% ▲ (+0.03)

Both Teams to Score: 

49.66%

Goals

Over 1.5 69.74%
Under 1.5 30.26%
Over 2.5 45.22% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 54.78% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 3.5 23.66%
Under 3.5 76.34%
Over 4.5 12.87% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 4.5 87.13% ▼ (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Tigres 31.31% ▼ (-0.02)
Draw 46.59%
Toluca 22.1% ▲ (+0.02)

Team To Score First

Tigres 51.95%
No Goal 9.72% ▲ (+0.01)
Toluca 38.33% ▼ (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 59.86%
Equal 8 11.89%
Under 8 28.25%
Over 9 47.5%
Equal 9 12.36%
Under 9 40.14%
Over 10.5 35.82% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 10.5 64.18%

Tigres Goals

Over 1.5 39.66% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 1.5 60.34% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 2.5 16%
Under 2.5 84%
Over 3.5 5.21%
Under 3.5 94.79%

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 61.49% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 0.5 38.51% ▼ (-0.09)
Over 1.5 27.8% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 1.5 72.2% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 9.89% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 2.5 90.11% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 2.79% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 97.21% ▼ (-0.02)

Score analysis

Tigres 44.05%
Draw 27.91%
Toluca 28.09%
Tigres
1-0 @ 12.12% ▼ (-0.03)
2-1 @ 9.23% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 7.92% ▼ (-0.03)
3-0 @ 3.81% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 3.71%
3-2 @ 2.27%
Other @ 4.99% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 44.05%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.28% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 9.72% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 4.69% ▲ (+0.02)
3-3 @ 1%
Other @ 0.22% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 27.91%
Toluca
0-1 @ 8.47% ▲ (+0.05)
1-2 @ 6.64%
0-2 @ 4.31% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 2.4%
0-3 @ 1.88% ▼ (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.82%
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 28.09%

Head to Head

CONCACAF Champions League
May 31, 2026 1.00am
1
1
ET Estadio Nemesio Díez
  • Everardo del Villar 87' yellowcard
  • Mauricio Isaís 96' yellowcard
  • Jorge Díaz 104' goal
  • yellowcard Diego Lainez 90'+3'
  • goal Joaquim Henrique Pereira Silva 114'
Liga MX Gameweek 3
Jan 18, 2026 1.00am
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León
  • Marcelo Flores 57' yellowcard
  • Marcelo Flores 58' yellowcard
  • Carlos Uriel 83' yellowcard
  • Uriel Antuna 83' yellowcard
  • Juan Vigon 89' yellowcard
  • Juan Vigón 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Helinho 59'
  • yellowcard Sebastian Cordova 76'
  • yellowcard Nicolas Castro 76'
  • yellowcard Sebastián Córdova 76'
  • yellowcard Nicolás Castro 76'
Liga MX
Dec 15, 2025 1.00am
2
1
HT : 1 1
ET
  • Federico Pereira 12' yellowcard
  • Helinho 40' goal
  • Santiago Simon 45'+3' yellowcard
  • Paulinho 52' goal
  • Paulinho 69' yellowcard
  • Diego Barbosa 117' yellowcard
  • goal Fernando Gorriaran 14'
  • yellowcard Angel Correa 64'
  • yellowcard Juan Brunetta 78'
  • yellowcard Fernando Gorriaran 96'
Liga MX
Dec 12, 2025 2.00am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Jesus Angulo 17' yellowcard
  • Jesus Angulo 18' yellowcard
  • 18' yellowcard
  • Angel Correa 46' goal
  • Jesus Garza 63' yellowcard
  • Jose Garcia 63' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jesus Gallardo 23'
  • yellowcard Jesus Gallardo 24'
  • redcard Robert Morales 90'+2'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 90'+2'
Liga MX Gameweek 3
Jul 27, 2025 2.00am
3
4
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX
May 18, 2025 2.00am
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Paulinho 14' yellowcard
  • Paulinho 14' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vega 18' goal
  • Alexis Vega 18' goal
  • Juan Dominguez 37' yellowcard
  • Juan Dominguez 37' yellowcard
  • Jesus Gallardo 61' yellowcard
  • Jesus Gallardo 61' yellowcard
  • Edgar Lopez 79' goal
  • Edgar Lopez 79' goal
  • Alexis Vega 82' goal
  • Alexis Vega 82' goal
  • yellowcard Joaquim 16'
  • yellowcard Joaquim 16'
  • yellowcard Juan Sanchez 26'
  • yellowcard Juan Sanchez 26'