Liga MX Gameweek 10
Sep 26, 2026 11.50pm
Mexico City Stadium

Cruz Azul vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Cruz Azul

All competitions
Last game
Sep 20, 2026 2.10am
Monterrey 1 - 0 Cruz Azul
Goals scored
16
Top scorer
Jeremy Márquez

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Sep 21, 2026 1.00am
Toluca 2 - 3 Santos Laguna
Goals scored
20
Top scorer
Federico Viñas

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Cruz Azul win with a probability of 38.02%. A win for Toluca has a probability of 35.94% and a draw has a probability of 26.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cruz Azul win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.41%) and 2-0 (5.85%). The likeliest Toluca win is 1-2 (8.27%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.93%).

Result

Cruz Azul 38.02% ▲ (+0.18)
Draw 26.08%
Toluca 35.94% ▼ (-0.17)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.86% ▼ (-0.08)

Goals

Over 1.5 77.2% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 22.8% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 53.83% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 46.17% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 3.5 31.11% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 3.5 68.89% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 4.5 17.74% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 4.5 82.26% ▲ (+0.03)

First Half Winner

Cruz Azul 27.08%
Draw 45.96%
Toluca 26.96%

Team To Score First

Cruz Azul 47.76%
No Goal 6.5% ▲ (+0.01)
Toluca 45.74% ▼ (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 57.89%
Equal 8 11.07%
Under 8 31.04%
Over 9 46.61%
Equal 9 11.28%
Under 9 42.11%
Over 10.5 36.03%
Under 10.5 63.97%

Cruz Azul Goals

Over 1.5 40.28% ▲ (+0.13)
Under 1.5 59.72% ▼ (-0.13)
Over 2.5 16.66% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 2.5 83.34% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 3.5 5.84% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 3.5 94.16% ▼ (-0.04)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 70.78% ▼ (-0.15)
Under 0.5 29.22% ▲ (+0.15)
Over 1.5 38.36% ▼ (-0.18)
Under 1.5 61.64% ▲ (+0.18)
Over 2.5 15.8% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 2.5 84.2% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 3.5 5.03% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 3.5 94.97% ▲ (+0.04)

Score analysis

Cruz Azul 38.03%
Draw 26.07%
Toluca 35.93%
Cruz Azul
2-1 @ 8.77% ▲ (+0.02)
1-0 @ 8.41% ▲ (+0.03)
2-0 @ 5.85% ▲ (+0.05)
3-1 @ 3.8% ▲ (+0.03)
3-0 @ 2.91% ▲ (+0.04)
3-2 @ 2.71%
Other @ 5.58% ▲ (+0.04)
Total : 38.03%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.93%
0-0 @ 6.5% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 5.98% ▼ (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.4%
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 26.07%
Toluca
1-2 @ 8.27% ▼ (-0.04)
0-1 @ 7.92% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 5.6% ▼ (-0.04)
1-3 @ 3.58% ▼ (-0.03)
2-3 @ 3.02% ▼ (-0.01)
0-3 @ 2.77% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 4.77% ▼ (-0.05)
Total : 35.93%

Head to Head

Liga MX Gameweek 5
Feb 7, 2026 11.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Díez
  • Paulinho 41' goal
  • Pavel Perez 53' yellowcard
  • Pável Pérez 53' yellowcard
  • Diego Barbosa 75' yellowcard
  • Sebastian Cordova 75' yellowcard
  • Sebastián Córdova 75' yellowcard
  • Franco Andres Rossi Donazar 88' yellowcard
  • Franco Rossi 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jorge Luis Rodarte Barragán 46'
  • yellowcard Osinachi Ebere 64'
  • yellowcard Amaury Morales Rosas 73'
  • yellowcard Luka Romero 73'
  • yellowcard Amaury Morales 73'
  • goal Jose Paradela 77'
  • goal José Paradela 77'
  • yellowcard Amaury Garcia 82'
  • yellowcard Amaury García 82'
Liga MX
Aug 24, 2025 4.05am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX Gameweek 17
Apr 20, 2025 2.05am
2
2
HT : 4 4
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Juan Dominguez 30' goal
  • Juan Dominguez 30' goal
  • Everardo Lopez 42' yellowcard
  • Everardo Lopez 42' yellowcard
  • Jesus Gallardo 43' goal
  • Jesus Gallardo 43' goal
  • Hector Herrera 45'+4' yellowcard
  • Hector Herrera 45'+4' yellowcard
  • goal Gabriel Fernandez 2'
  • goal Gabriel Fernandez 2'
  • yellowcard Willer Ditta 33'
  • yellowcard Willer Ditta 33'
  • yellowcard Carlos Rotondi 37'
  • yellowcard Carlos Rotondi 37'
  • goal Carlos Rotondi 45'+3'
  • goal Carlos Rotondi 45'+3'
  • yellowcard Lorenzo Faravelli 63'
  • yellowcard Lorenzo Faravelli 63'
Liga MX Gameweek 4
Jul 21, 2024 4.05am
1
1
HT : 0 2
FT Estadio Azteca
  • Carlos Rodriguez 12' yellowcard
  • Carlos Rodriguez 12' yellowcard
  • Giorgos Giakoumakis 55' yellowcard
  • Giorgos Giakoumakis 55' yellowcard
  • Angel Sepulveda 90' goal
  • Angel Sepulveda 90' goal
  • yellowcard Jesus Gallardo 31'
  • yellowcard Jesus Gallardo 31'
  • goal Maximiliano Araujo 38'
  • goal Maximiliano Araujo 38'
  • yellowcard Marcel Ruiz 42'
  • yellowcard Marcel Ruiz 42'
Liga MX Gameweek 17
Apr 28, 2024 2.00am
0
1
HT : 1 2
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • 3' goal
  • goal Willer Ditta 18'
  • goal Willer Ditta 18'
  • yellowcard Carlos Rodriguez 71'
  • yellowcard Carlos Rodriguez 71'
  • yellowcard Camilo Candido 73'
  • yellowcard Camilo Candido 73'
Liga MX Gameweek 2
Jul 9, 2023 12.50am
0
2
HT : 0 2
FT Estadio Azteca
  • goal Tiago Volpi 37'
  • goal Tiago Volpi 37'
  • goal Juan Dominguez 90'+2'
  • goal Juan Dominguez 90'+2'