Seeking to end a run of three straight defeats in their first game of 2022, Leeds United prepare to welcome fellow strugglers Burnley to Elland Road on Sunday.
The Whites have seen their recent clashes with Liverpool and Aston Villa postponed due to COVID-19, while Sean Dyche's men lost 3-1 against Manchester United on Thursday.
Match preview
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From the highs of establishing themselves as a force to be reckoned with in the Premier League to the lows of a likely relegation dogfight, it has been quite the topsy-turvy year for Leeds United.
Prior to seeing their games with Liverpool and Villa being called off, Marcelo Bielsa's side lost three from three against Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal, but it would have taken something special indeed to get one over the top-four outfits.
The Whites prepare to enter 2022 16th in the Premier League table and five points clear of the relegation zone after Burnley's defeat against Man United, so the highly-experienced Bielsa would choose no better time to weave his old magic and steady the Elland Road ship.
Leeds can take some solace in the fact that their 4-1 loss to Arsenal represents their only defeat in their last six Premier League contests at home, and the hosts have only failed to score in one of their last 11 top-flight games at Elland Road – finding the back of the net in each of their last seven.
Not since the Championship days of the 2014-15 season have Leeds lost four league encounters on the bounce, and given Burnley's troubles on the road throughout much of 2021, the home crowd can afford to enter the New Year with a cautious sense of optimism for Sunday's game.
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Even amid Man United's struggles to dominate matches under the tutelage of Ralf Rangnick, attempting to get one over the Red Devils at Old Trafford was a bridge too far for Burnley, who slumped to a 3-1 defeat on Thursday night.
Scott McTominay, Cristiano Ronaldo and a Ben Mee own goal put the game beyond the Clarets' reach by the 35-minute mark, and even though veteran attacker Aaron Lennon threatened a comeback with his own effort before the break, United shut up shop in the second period.
Another fight to retain their top-flight status awaits Burnley in 2022, as Sean Dyche's side occupy 18th spot in the table, but 17th-placed Watford and upcoming opponents Leeds are within touching distance as the Clarets aim to take advantage of their games in hand.
It is now six games without victory for Burnley in the Premier League, though, and they are one of only two sides in the English top flight - along with Newcastle United - yet to win away from home this term, but a trip to fellow strugglers Leeds could be a prime opportunity to end that barren streak.
Burnley and Leeds played out a 1-1 draw in their clash at Turf Moor earlier in the campaign, but the Whites managed to prevail 1-0 at Elland Road this time last year thanks to a fifth-minute penalty from talisman Patrick Bamford.
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Team News
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Leeds striker Patrick Bamford has rated himself as "touch-and-go" for the visit of the Clarets, but Liam Cooper, Charlie Cresswell, Kalvin Phillips, Rodrigo and Pascal Struijk are all on the sidelines.
Jamie Shackleton and Daniel James also missed the 4-1 defeat to Arsenal two weekends ago, but there is hope that Diego Llorente may be able to come in and marshal a leaky backline alongside Junior Firpo, who returns from suspension.
Joe Gelhardt will earn another start up top if Bamford is not deemed fit enough to feature from the off, while Stuart Dallas and Adam Forshaw ought to pair up in the middle.
As for Burnley, Dyche will hope to have Maxwel Cornet fit for the Elland Road trip after he missed the Man United defeat, but Ashley Barnes and Connor Roberts remain out for the long term.
The Clarets' own COVID-19 cluster saw Kevin Long, Josh Brownhill, Jay Rodriguez and Nick Pope all ruled out of Thursday's game, but only Brownhill is definitely absent for this contest.
Lennon ought to hold his place in the final third after an impressive showing at Old Trafford, and the ex-Tottenham Hotspur man may form part of an unchanged XI this Sunday.
Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, Koch, Llorente, Firpo; Dallas, Forshaw; Raphinha, Roberts, Harrison; Bamford
Burnley possible starting lineup:
Hennessey; Lowton, Mee, Tarkowski, Taylor; Gudmundsson, Cork, Westwood, McNeil; Lennon, Wood
We say: Leeds United 1-0 Burnley
Even if Bamford is only fit enough to turn out for 45 or 60 minutes on Sunday, the England international's comeback will certainly aid Leeds' prospects of a priceless three points in this basement battle.
Burnley did not simply roll over against Man United, but their away-day struggles and COVID-related absences will likely hinder their chances of a positive result as they begin 2022 on the back foot.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 51.62%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 23.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.71%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.93%), while for a Burnley win it was 0-1 (7.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
