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Leeds logo
Premier League | Gameweek 15
Dec 27, 2020 at 12pm UK
Elland Road
Burnley logo

Leeds
1 - 0
Burnley

Bamford (5' pen.)
FT(HT: 1-0)

Tarkowski (28'), Westwood (79'), Barnes (90')

Preview: Leeds United vs. Burnley - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Premier League clash between Leeds United and Burnley, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Leeds United will be looking to bounce back from last weekend's heavy defeat to Manchester United when they welcome Burnley to Elland Road in the Premier League on Sunday afternoon.

The Whites currently sit 14th in the table, having picked up 17 points from their 14 matches this term, while in-form Burnley are 16th, four points behind their opponents this weekend with a game in hand.


Match preview

Raphinha celebrates scoring for Leeds United against Everton in the Premier League on November 28, 2020© Reuters

Leeds boss Marcelo Bielsa has insisted that his team will not be changing their approach despite suffering a 6-2 defeat to Man United last weekend. The Red Devils ran riot at Old Trafford but suggestions that the Whites could alter their playing style have been firmly shut down by Bielsa.

In many ways, Leeds have been the entertainers in the Premier League this season, scoring 24 times and conceding 30, picking up 17 points from their 14 matches to sit 14th in the table.

The promoted club are seven points clear of the bottom three heading into the Boxing Day fixtures and have won five times in the league this term, which is a solid return taking everything into consideration.

The Whites will fancy their chances of picking up positive results in their next two games with Burnley and West Bromwich Albion, but it is difficult to know what to expect from the Yorkshire club, who have beaten Newcastle 5-2 and lost 6-2 to Man United in their last two fixtures in England's top flight.

Ashley Barnes celebrates scoring for Burnley against Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Premier League on December 21, 2020© Reuters

Burnley, on the other hand, will enter this weekend's contest in strong form, picking up eight points from their last four matches with Everton, Arsenal, Aston Villa and Wolverhampton Wanderers, beating the latter 2-1 on Monday night.

Sean Dyche's side have won at Arsenal and drawn with Villa in their last two league matches on the road, and a strong run has allowed them to move three points clear of the relegation zone with a game in hand.

Goals have been a real issue for the Clarets this term - finding the back of the net in just eight of their 13 matches - and the fact that their leading scorer in the league this season is Chris Wood with three goals is a concern, particularly considering that Ashley Barnes, Jay Rodriguez, Dwight McNeil and Matej Vydra have just one between them.

Burnley, who will host Sheffield United and Fulham in their next two matches, are actually unbeaten in the league against Leeds since April 2013, winning three of their last four encounters, which all came in the Championship.

Leeds United Premier League form: DWLLWL

Burnley Premier League form: WLDWDW


Team News

Burnley midfielder Dwight McNeil pictured in September 2020© Reuters

Leeds will again be without the services of Gaetano Berardi, Adam Forshaw and Robin Koch through injury, while Liam Cooper, who had to be substituted against Man United last weekend due to a stomach issue, has been ruled out of the contest at Elland Road.

Diego Llorente is available, though, and the summer arrival is expected to come into the middle of the defence alongside Luke Ayling, with Stuart Dallas starting at right-back.

There are not expected to be any surprises further forward, with Patrick Bamford, Jack Harrison and Raphinha all featuring, while Rodrigo Moreno should start in a deeper position.

As for Burnley, Dyche is hopeful that McNeil and Robbie Brady, who were both forced off against Wolves, will be able to overcome injuries to feature against Bielsa's side.

Johann Berg Gudmundsson and Jack Cork are definitely out, though, and the visitors also have a concern over the fitness of Vydra, who is struggling with a back problem.

Wood and Barnes were both on the scoresheet against Wolves and should continue in the final third, while there are not expected to be any changes through the spine of the team.

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Dallas, Ayling, Llorente, Alioski; Harrison, Klich, Phillips, Rodrigo, Raphinha; Bamford

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Taylor; Brady, Westwood, Brownhill, McNeil; Barnes, Wood


SM words green background

We say: Leeds United 2-1 Burnley

Burnley, as mentioned, will enter Sunday's contest in good form, and the Clarets are more than capable of picking up a positive result; we just a feeling for Leeds in this match, though, backing the Whites to pick up all three points courtesy of a narrow success.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



Video prediction

Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:



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Written by
Matt Law

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 65.51%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 14.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.02%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.69%), while for a Burnley win it was 0-1 (4.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Leeds vs Burnley

Leeds United
69.0%
Draw
17.7%
Burnley
13.3%
113
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Burnley manager Sean Dyche pictured in November 2020
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd21145230111945
2Leeds UnitedLeeds21126337152242
3Sunderland21117332171540
4Burnley2010822471738
5Blackburn RoversBlackburn2011452517837
6Middlesbrough21104735251034
7West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom2071122314932
8Watford199462725231
9Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds218582630-429
10Swansea CitySwansea217682322127
11Bristol City216962626027
12Norwich CityNorwich206863530526
13Millwall206772018225
14Derby CountyDerby216692626024
15Coventry CityCoventry216692730-324
16Preston North EndPreston2141162127-623
17Queens Park RangersQPR2141072127-622
18Luton TownLuton2164112337-1422
19Stoke CityStoke205692126-521
20Oxford UnitedOxford Utd2046102133-1218
21Portsmouth193882134-1317
22Cardiff CityCardiff1945101730-1317
23Plymouth ArgylePlymouth2045111942-2317
24Hull City2137111930-1116


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