Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 56.81%. A win for Necaxa had a probability of 21.61% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.61%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Necaxa win was 1-2 (5.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Minnesota United would win this match.