Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 65.42%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Costa Rica had a probability of 13.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.02%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.93%), while for a Costa Rica win it was 0-1 (5.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that USA would win this match.