Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 54.66%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 20.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 0-1 (6.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.