Championship Gameweek 40
Swansea
Apr 5, 2025 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Swansea.com Stadium
Derby
  • Ji-Sung Eom 79' goal
  • yellowcard Craig Forsyth 67'
  • yellowcard Marcus Harness 82'

Swansea City vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Swansea City

All competitions
Last game
Mar 29, 2025 3.00pm
Leeds 2 - 2 Swansea
Goals scored
51
Top scorer
Liam Cullen

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Apr 2, 2025 7.45pm
Derby 2 - 0 Preston
Goals scored
48
Top scorer
Jerry Yates

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Swansea City win with a probability of 49.13%. A draw has a probability of 25.6% and a win for Derby County has a probability of 25.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12.18%), while for a Derby County win it is 0-1 (7.96%).

Result

Swansea City 49.13% ▲ (+0.06)
Draw 25.65% ▼ (-0.02)
Derby County 25.22% ▼ (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.09% ▼ (-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5 46.91% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 53.09% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 25.33% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 74.67% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 4.5 11.57% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 88.43% ▼ (-0.01)

Swansea City Goals

Over 0.5 78.37% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 0.5 21.63% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 1.5 45.25% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 1.5 54.75% ▼ (-0.04)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 63.92% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 0.5 36.08% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 1.5 27.14% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 1.5 72.86% ▲ (+0.03)

Score analysis

Swansea City 49.12%
Draw 25.65%
Derby County 25.22%
Swansea City
1-0 @ 11.94%
2-1 @ 9.33% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 9.15% ▲ (+0.02)
3-1 @ 4.76% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 4.67% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.43% ▲ (+0.01)
4-1 @ 1.82% ▲ (+0.01)
4-0 @ 1.79% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 3.25%
Total : 49.12%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.18%
0-0 @ 7.8% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.75% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.91%
Total : 25.65%
Derby County
0-1 @ 7.96% ▼ (-0.01)
1-2 @ 6.21% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 4.06% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 2.11% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 1.62% ▼ (-0.01)
0-3 @ 1.38% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 25.22%

Head to Head

Championship Gameweek 17
Derby
Nov 27, 2024 8.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 2
FT Pride Park Stadium
Swansea
  • Callum Elder 34' yellowcard
  • Nathaniel Mendez-Laing 65' goal
  • Curtis Nelson 88' yellowcard
  • Liam Thompson 90'+1' yellowcard
  • goal Zan Vipotnik 2'
  • goal Ronald Pereira Martins 14'
  • yellowcard Myles Peart-Harris 73'
Championship Gameweek 41
Swansea
Apr 9, 2022 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 2 1
FT
Derby
  • Joel Piroe 8' goal
  • Joel Piroe 16' goal
  • Matt Grimes 68' yellowcard
  • Hannes Wolf 84' yellowcard
  • goal Tom Lawrence 22'
  • yellowcard Ravel Morrison 81'
Championship Gameweek 11
Derby
Oct 2, 2021 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Swansea
  • Craig Forsyth 45' yellowcard
  • Dylan Willis 82' yellowcard
  • Nathan Byrne 89' yellowcard
Championship Gameweek 45
Swansea
May 1, 2021 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT Liberty Stadium
Derby
  • Morgan Whittaker 62' yellowcard
  • Morgan Whittaker 63' goal
  • Connor Roberts 66' goal
  • Jamal Lowe 67' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Nathan Byrne 26'
  • goal Tom Lawrence 48'
Championship Gameweek 19
Derby
Dec 16, 2020 5.30pm
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Swansea
  • Colin Kazim-Richards 4' goal
  • Kamil Jozwiak 37' goal
  • yellowcard Andre Ayew 67'
Championship Gameweek 31
Swansea
Feb 8, 2020 3.00pm
2
3
HT : 0 1
FT Liberty Stadium
Derby
  • Yan Dhanda 56' goal
  • Kyle Naughton 58' goal
  • Joe Rodon 90' yellowcard
  • goal Martyn Waghorn 8'
  • yellowcard Jayden Bogle 38'
  • yellowcard Duane Holmes 53'
  • yellowcard Ben Hamer 58'
  • goal Duane Holmes 64'
  • yellowcard Andre Wisdom 70'
  • goal Tom Lawrence 80'

Form Data

Leeds 2 - 2 Swansea
Swansea 0 - 2 Burnley
Watford 1 - 0 Swansea
Swansea 1 - 0 Middlesbrough
Preston 0 - 0 Swansea
Swansea 3 - 0 Blackburn
Derby 2 - 0 Preston
Plymouth 2 - 3 Derby
Derby 2 - 0 Coventry
Derby 2 - 1 Blackburn
Middlesbrough 1 - 0 Derby
Derby 0 - 1 Millwall