Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 37.84%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 36.15% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (6.35%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 0-1 (9.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portsmouth would win this match.