Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 42.72%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 32.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%).