Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moldova win with a probability of 58.83%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 16.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moldova win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.4%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.24%), while for a Estonia win it was 0-1 (6.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.