Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leganes win with a probability of 41.74%. A win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 30.36% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leganes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Celta Vigo win was 0-1 (10.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leganes would win this match.