Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 58.22%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Warta Poznan had a probability of 19.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 2-0 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%), while for a Warta Poznan win it was 0-1 (5.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jagiellonia Bialystok would win this match.