/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fisrlog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fitalog.png)
-
Ran Ben Shimon
88'
-
Mohammad Abu Fani
90'
-
Sagiv Yehezkel
90'+2'
-
Mahmoud Jaber
90'+4'
-
Roy Revivo
90'+4'
-
Davide Frattesi
38'
-
Moise Kean
62'
-
Federico Gatti
73'
Israel vs Italy - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F36%2Ffederico-dimarco.jpg)
Predicted Lineups
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F36%2Fluciano-spalletti.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 38.99%. A win for Israel had a probability of 34.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Israel win was 1-0 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.
Result
Israel
34.59%
▲
(+0.05)
Draw
26.42%
▲
(+0.22)
Italy
38.99%
▼
(-0.27)
Both Teams to Score:
52.65%
▼
(-0.71)
Goals
Over 2.5
47.89%
▼
(-0.91)
Under 2.5
52.1%
▲
(+0.90)
Over 3.5
26.17%
▼
(-0.79)
Under 3.5
73.82%
▲
(+0.78)
Over 4.5
12.11%
▼
(-0.52)
Under 4.5
87.89%
▲
(+0.51)
Israel Goals
Over 0.5
71.29%
▼
(-0.42)
Under 0.5
28.71%
▲
(+0.41)
Over 1.5
35.46%
▼
(-0.52)
Under 1.5
64.53%
▲
(+0.51)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5
73.85%
▼
(-0.57)
Under 0.5
26.14%
▲
(+0.56)
Over 1.5
38.78%
▼
(-0.77)
Under 1.5
61.21%
▲
(+0.76)
Score analysis
Israel
34.59%
Draw
26.41%
Italy
38.98%
Israel
1-0
@
9.37%
▲
(+0.23)
2-1 @ 7.84% ▼ (-0.03)
2-0 @ 5.84% ▲ (+0.08)
3-1 @ 3.26% ▼ (-0.05)
3-0 @ 2.43% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.19% ▼ (-0.07)
4-1 @ 1.02% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 34.59%
2-1 @ 7.84% ▼ (-0.03)
2-0 @ 5.84% ▲ (+0.08)
3-1 @ 3.26% ▼ (-0.05)
3-0 @ 2.43% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.19% ▼ (-0.07)
4-1 @ 1.02% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 34.59%
Draw
1-1
@
12.56%
▲
(+0.12)
0-0 @ 7.5% ▲ (+0.27)
2-2 @ 5.26% ▼ (-0.11)
Other @ 1.09%
Total : 26.41%
0-0 @ 7.5% ▲ (+0.27)
2-2 @ 5.26% ▼ (-0.11)
Other @ 1.09%
Total : 26.41%
Italy
0-1
@
10.06%
▲
(+0.20)
1-2 @ 8.43% ▼ (-0.07)
0-2 @ 6.75% ▲ (+0.03)
1-3 @ 3.77% ▼ (-0.09)
0-3 @ 3.02% ▼ (-0.04)
2-3 @ 2.35% ▼ (-0.09)
1-4 @ 1.26% ▼ (-0.06)
0-4 @ 1.01% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 38.98%
1-2 @ 8.43% ▼ (-0.07)
0-2 @ 6.75% ▲ (+0.03)
1-3 @ 3.77% ▼ (-0.09)
0-3 @ 3.02% ▼ (-0.04)
2-3 @ 2.35% ▼ (-0.09)
1-4 @ 1.26% ▼ (-0.06)
0-4 @ 1.01% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 38.98%