/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fgerlog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fitalog.png)
-
Angelo Stiller
22'
-
Joshua Kimmich
30'
-
Jamal Musiala
36'
-
Tim Kleindienst
45'
-
Karim Adeyemi
68'
-
Tim Kleindienst
79'
-
Federico Gatti
21'
-
Alessandro Buongiorno
29'
-
Moise Kean
49'
-
Moise Kean
69'
-
Alessandro Bastoni
79'
-
Giacomo Raspadori
90'+5'
-
Nicolo Barella
90'+9'
Germany vs Italy - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Result
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F25%2F12%2Fjoshua-kimmich_1.jpg)
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F25%2F12%2Fjoshua-kimmich.jpg)
Predicted Lineups
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F25%2F12%2Friccardo-calafiori_1.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 60.59%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Italy had a probability of 17.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.77%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.36%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (5.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
Result
Germany
60.59%
▼
(-0.03)
Draw
21.82%
▲
(+0.01)
Italy
17.59%
▲
(+0.02)
Both Teams to Score:
51.2%
▲
(+0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5
53.74%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 2.5
46.26%
▼
(-0.01)
Over 3.5
31.45%
Under 3.5
68.55%
▼
(-0.01)
Over 4.5
15.68%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 4.5
84.31%
▼
(-0.01)
Germany Goals
Over 0.5
85.18%
▼
(-0.02)
Under 0.5
14.81%
▲
(+0.01)
Over 1.5
56.9%
▼
(-0.02)
Under 1.5
43.09%
▲
(+0.02)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5
60.11%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 0.5
39.89%
▼
(-0.03)
Over 1.5
23.45%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 1.5
76.55%
▼
(-0.03)
Score analysis
Germany
60.58%
Draw
21.81%
Italy
17.59%
Germany
1-0
@
11.28%
2-0 @ 10.77% ▼ (-0.01)
2-1 @ 9.9%
3-0 @ 6.86% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 6.3% ▼ (-0.01)
4-0 @ 3.28% ▼ (-0.01)
4-1 @ 3.01% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.9% ▲ (+0.01)
4-2 @ 1.38%
5-0 @ 1.25% ▼ (-0.01)
5-1 @ 1.15% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 2.5%
Total : 60.58%
2-0 @ 10.77% ▼ (-0.01)
2-1 @ 9.9%
3-0 @ 6.86% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 6.3% ▼ (-0.01)
4-0 @ 3.28% ▼ (-0.01)
4-1 @ 3.01% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.9% ▲ (+0.01)
4-2 @ 1.38%
5-0 @ 1.25% ▼ (-0.01)
5-1 @ 1.15% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 2.5%
Total : 60.58%
Draw
1-1
@
10.36%
0-0 @ 5.91% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.55% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 21.81%
0-0 @ 5.91% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.55% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 21.81%
Italy
0-1
@
5.43%
▲
(+0.01)
1-2 @ 4.77% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 2.5% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 1.46% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 1.39% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 17.59%
1-2 @ 4.77% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 2.5% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 1.46% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 1.39% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 17.59%
Head to Head
Build-up
Predicted Lineups
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F25%2F11%2Fjulian-nagelsmann.jpg)