Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 50.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 23.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Boca Juniors in this match.