Australian A-League | 2nd Leg

May 24, 2025 at 7am UK

Mount Smart Stadium

Auckland FC
0 - 2
Victory

(Melbourne Victory win 2-1 on aggregate)

Gallegos (41'), Paulsen (44'), Pijnaker (78')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Machach (55'), Fornaroli (60')
Arzani (20'), Valadon (46'), Fornaroli (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Auckland FC and Melbourne Victory, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Auckland FC

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 0-1 Auckland FC
Saturday, May 17 at 10.35am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 0-1 Auckland FC
Saturday, May 17 at 10.35am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auckland FC win with a probability of 44.38%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 32.11% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Auckland FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.51%) and 2-0 (6.4%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.

Result
Auckland FC	Draw	Melbourne Victory
44.38% ( -1.26)	23.51% ( 0.32)	32.11% ( 0.93)

Both teams to score 61.98% (

-0.71)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.34% (

-1.14)

39.66% (

1.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.99% (

-1.19)

62.01% (

1.19)

Auckland FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.78% (

-0.95)

18.21% (

0.95)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.77% (

-1.64)

49.23% (

1.64)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.78% (

0.01)

24.21% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.44% (

0.01)

58.55% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Auckland FC 44.38%

Melbourne Victory 32.11%

Draw 23.51%

Auckland FC	Draw	Melbourne Victory
2-1 @ 9.07% ( -0.08) 1-0 @ 7.51% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 6.4% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 5.15% ( -0.21) 3-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.15) 3-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.15) 4-1 @ 2.19% ( -0.16) 4-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.11) 4-0 @ 1.55% ( -0.11) Other @ 3.68% Total : 44.38%	1-1 @ 10.65% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 6.43% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.23) 3-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.51%	1-2 @ 7.55% ( 0.17) 0-1 @ 6.25% ( 0.33) 0-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.23) 1-3 @ 3.57% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.11) 1-4 @ 1.27% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.82% Total : 32.11%