Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RKC Waalwijk win with a probability of 40.86%. A win for Almere City had a probability of 34.88% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a RKC Waalwijk win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.84%) and 0-2 (6.13%). The likeliest Almere City win was 2-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that RKC Waalwijk would win this match.