Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 36.84%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 36.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.54%) and 0-2 (5.94%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-0 (9.12%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.