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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 38.25%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 33.03% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.83%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (11.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sutton United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sutton United | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 38.25% | 28.72% | 33.03% |
| Both teams to score 45.43% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.96% | 61.04% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.97% | 81.02% |
| Sutton United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.13% | 30.87% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.84% | 67.15% |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.72% | 34.28% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.02% | 70.98% |
| Score Analysis |
| Sutton United | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 1-0 @ 12.43% 2-1 @ 7.83% 2-0 @ 7.31% 3-1 @ 3.07% 3-0 @ 2.86% 3-2 @ 1.64% 4-1 @ 0.9% Other @ 2.2% Total : 38.24% | 1-1 @ 13.31% 0-0 @ 10.58% 2-2 @ 4.19% Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.71% | 0-1 @ 11.32% 1-2 @ 7.13% 0-2 @ 6.07% 1-3 @ 2.54% 0-3 @ 2.17% 2-3 @ 1.5% Other @ 2.3% Total : 33.02% |