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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 56.39%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 19.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.04%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for an AFC Wimbledon win it was 0-1 (6.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stevenage would win this match.
Result | ||
Stevenage | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
56.39% ( 0.05) | 24.24% ( -0.02) | 19.36% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 47.02% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.53% ( 0.02) | 53.47% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.01% ( 0.01) | 74.99% ( -0.02) |
Stevenage Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.17% ( 0.02) | 18.83% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.73% ( 0.04) | 50.27% ( -0.05) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.93% ( -0.03) | 42.07% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.51% ( -0.03) | 78.49% ( 0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Stevenage | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
1-0 @ 13.22% 2-0 @ 11.04% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.15% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.32% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.57% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.3% 4-1 @ 2.22% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.96% ( 0) Other @ 3.04% Total : 56.39% | 1-1 @ 11.45% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.92% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.14% ( -0) Other @ 0.73% Total : 24.24% | 0-1 @ 6.86% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.97% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.43% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.2% ( -0) Other @ 1.95% Total : 19.36% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 40 |
2 | Port Vale | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 36 |
3 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 34 |
4 | AFC Wimbledon | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 33 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 33 |
6 | Chesterfield | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 31 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 31 |
8 | MK Dons | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 30 |
9 | Gillingham | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 29 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 28 |
11 | Notts County | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 28 |
12 | Salford City | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 27 |
13 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 26 |
14 | Bromley | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
15 | BarrowBarrow | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 23 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 23 |
17 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 22 |
18 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 22 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 21 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 21 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 18 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 16 |
23 | Morecambe | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 36 | -17 | 14 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 14 |
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