Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 40.4%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 33.7% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 0-1 (8.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mansfield Town would win this match.