FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round

Jan 7, 2022 at 8pm UK

The County Ground

Swindon
1 - 4
Man City

McKirdy (78')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Silva (14'), Jesus (28'), Gundogan (59'), Palmer (82')
Rodri (64'), Walker (80'), Mcatee (90+2')

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 75.39%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Swindon Town had a probability of 9.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.81%) and 1-2 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.16%), while for a Swindon Town win it was 2-1 (2.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Swindon Town	Draw	Manchester City
9.38%	15.23%	75.39%

Both teams to score 50.25%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.7%

35.3%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.67%

57.33%

Swindon Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.53%

45.47%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.69%

81.31%

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.15%

7.85%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

72.17%

27.84%

Score Analysis

Swindon Town 9.38%

Manchester City 75.39%

Draw 15.23%

Swindon Town	Draw	Manchester City
2-1 @ 2.82% 1-0 @ 2.81% 2-0 @ 1.11% 3-2 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.7% Total : 9.38%	1-1 @ 7.16% 2-2 @ 3.59% 0-0 @ 3.57% Other @ 0.91% Total : 15.23%	0-2 @ 11.56% 0-3 @ 9.81% 1-2 @ 9.11% 0-1 @ 9.09% 1-3 @ 7.73% 0-4 @ 6.24% 1-4 @ 4.92% 0-5 @ 3.18% 2-3 @ 3.05% 1-5 @ 2.5% 2-4 @ 1.94% 0-6 @ 1.35% 1-6 @ 1.06% 2-5 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.89% Total : 75.39%