Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 42.43%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 32.66% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.93%) and 0-2 (6.83%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 2-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.