Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Harrogate Town win with a probability of 37.54%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 36.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Harrogate Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.09%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 0-1 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Harrogate Town would win this match.