Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 47.21%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 25.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.49%) and 2-1 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.77%), while for a Fleetwood Town win it was 0-1 (9.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Colchester United would win this match.