Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 47.41%. A draw had a probability of 26.47% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 26.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%) , while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 0-1 (7.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.