Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cheltenham Town win with a probability of 39.46%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 35.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Notts County win was 0-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.