Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 56.41%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 24.01% and a draw had a probability of 19.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.89%) and 2-0 (5.94%). The likeliest Notts County win was 1-2 (5.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.59%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Peterborough United would win this match.