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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 42.54%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 30.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (7.8%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 30.59% | 26.86% | 42.54% |
| Both teams to score 50.07% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.13% | 54.86% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.84% | 76.16% |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.22% | 32.78% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.66% | 69.34% |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.48% | 25.52% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.63% | 60.37% |
| Score Analysis |
| Carlisle United | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 1-0 @ 9.33% 2-1 @ 7.11% 2-0 @ 5.2% 3-1 @ 2.64% 3-0 @ 1.93% 3-2 @ 1.8% Other @ 2.58% Total : 30.59% | 1-1 @ 12.74% 0-0 @ 8.36% 2-2 @ 4.85% Other @ 0.91% Total : 26.86% | 0-1 @ 11.42% 1-2 @ 8.7% 0-2 @ 7.8% 1-3 @ 3.96% 0-3 @ 3.55% 2-3 @ 2.21% 1-4 @ 1.35% 0-4 @ 1.21% Other @ 2.32% Total : 42.54% |